Unit economics
The share of a cohort still active after a given interval — the same fact as churn, read from the surviving side.
Formula
Retention(n) = Customers from the cohort active in period n ÷ Cohort size
- Cohort
- everyone who first bought in the same period
- n
- periods elapsed since acquisition, counted from the cohort's own start
Retention read by cohort shows the shape of the curve, and the shape is the finding: a curve that flattens means the business has a real base, a curve that keeps falling means it is renting customers and will have to keep buying them.
The flattening point matters more than any single month's number. A business whose curve settles at 22 % has a durable fifth of every cohort; one whose curve is still falling at month twelve has none.
Mixing cohorts hides the curve entirely. A base that is growing fast reports improving retention while every individual cohort is decaying, because new arrivals keep replacing the departed in the denominator.
The definitions are the easy part. Whether the figure on your dashboard was computed this way is a different question, and usually the more expensive one.